The Future of Petrol and Diesel

[Robsey]

I thought that I would open up a deep and meaningful topic that will affect us all one day.

The future of petrol or diesel cars.

Thankfully for me, I suspect any changes to legislation will not be significant enough, before my license expires in 2038.

Cutting through all the scandel and blurb, it appears that unless you live in, or commute to central London, then there should be no significant issues to concern yourself with.
Perhaps Manchester and Birmingham may introduce a congestion charge in years to come.
Although I do recall an attempt to introduce a congestion zone within Manchester's M60 ring road was rejected approx 8 years ago.

Of course diesel is seen as the dirty black sheep of the family, but if serviced well, the car should be fine for years to come.

Diesels (especially turbo diesel) still provide excellent economy for owners covering longer than average distances each day.

It is only the VW scandel in 2015 that has killed diesel sales in the past few years.
As a point of clarity, diesels built from 2005 onward, still meets the 'current' emissions zones standards.

The typical commute is said to be less than 10 miles (16km) per day for most people, so as much as I cringe to say it, these people would be well served by an electric car.

Electric cars are still struggling with high purchase prices, limited charging points and limited range per charge.
---------------------------------
From my perspective, emissions is not due to the efficiency of the car, but the efficiency of the traffic to move around the road network.

My Cavalier runs an average 26 mpg.
You may say that is really bad, and my car needs a good service.

The reality is, that I commute every day around an eight mile section of the M60, at peak times. Often travelling at 13mph or less, so rarely getting upto third gear.

My average speed over my entire 13 miles, each way commute is often a poor 22 mph, taking close to an hour each way.

If I am on a steady run down a modest motorway, I can get a good mid-thirties or more miles per gallon, covering the same journey in 22 minutes. - yayy.
(Often during school holidays - lol)

Anyway - the future.

From what I can see, there will not be a ban on petrol or diesel cars from the roads of the UK within my life time.

The idea is for zero emissions by 2050, but that will not preclude non-electric cars from the roads in 30 years' time.

Okay - sales will cease in 2035, but that is 40 years after the end of Cavalier production.

You never know, the value of your Cavalier could soar in 2034, when it will be peoples' last chance to buy a diesel or petrol car, and their last chance to hear a lovely engine burble.

By which time, I will be in a nursing home with dementia smelling of pee and cabbage.

So - in summary,
There is no reason why we should not be able to enjoy our Cavaliers on most of the UK's roads for another 20+ years.

You never know - Someone may write a How 2 before then for -
'How to convert your Cavalier to electric or hydrogen fuel'

Joking aside, hydrogen is the most easy conversion, although some additive may be needed to lubricate the cylinders etc.

[Robsey]

The other side of this, is whether you will still have a Cavalier in 20+ years.

A further shufty round the motoring press, points out that the average car is about 16 years old when it goes to the crusher.

Obviously Cavaliers are NOT 'your average car' with all but the youngest being almost 10 years older than that...

Also - typical ownership is only 4 or 5 years.
(I am obviously not an average owner with my average being about 17 years and counting).

Suffice to say...
Apart from hardened enthusiasts, there will not be many decent cars about to be affected by any withdrawel of petrol and diesel sales.

We will still be burning fossil fuels, but now to run the power stations to charge the hundreds of thousands of pure-electric cars.
(Noting that hybrids will also be phased out in 2035.)
There will not be enough capacity from just hydro, wind-farm and nuclear derived power stations to cope with the increase in demand.

Bring back the horse and cart - lol

[3cav3]

The ban is a bit of a concern, however in the case of my Astra I will simply switch to cooking oil if I can no longer obtain diesel. I'm sure the sales of fuel won't stop in 2035 anyway, as I can't really see an artic running all over Britain on batteries.
The other thing I can't see is the government wanting to loose the revenue earned from the classic car movement plus would a government really want to piss off that big a share of the electorate?

[Robsey]

Indeed fuel will still be available long after 2035.
It is only the sale of new petrol and diesel cars that will cease.

As for revenue - with incentives to drive cleaner vehicles, it is a certainty that taxation of fossil fuels will increase significantly to make up for some of the short fall.

At present, the lower tax band for an electric car cannot compete with the fact that electric cars are almost double the price at the point of first sale.

A Nissan Leaf is as dear as a pretty decently specced up Insignia, Honda Civic or Mazda 5.
Approx £24,000+ new.
Ouch!!
And with a battery range of 100 miles per charge, they are very limited.

Look at it as you would a carburretor car.
These were not supplied in new cars from approx 1992...
But you can still drive them, as long as they meet the MOT standards of that time.

[iangsi]

My Motorsport will be up for sale this year as I use it to get to work when on night shift driving within the new expanded charging zone which is called the Ultra Low Emissions Zone ULEZ for short which is already enforced 24 / 7 / 365 in the central London Congestion Charge zone Monday - Friday 7am - 6pm. Each charge is £12.50 currently. So if I drove into the zone on a week day it will cost me £25 per day.

[Cavalier342]

Diesels should have been banned outright years ago, it's far too late now to reverse the damage made by them. The basic design of the diesel engine is made for heavy industrial use, such as train locomotives, ships, tanks, generators, articulated rig tractors, etc. Not for privately owned cars, it makes no sense at all.

To say that the limit for new cars to be sold is 2035 is a deep insult to the planet in general and frankly pathetic in my opinion. I just don't comprehend the reasoning behind this ridiculous delay.

[Robsey]

I run a petrol Cavalier and a diesel Vectra-C.

The diesel was chosen on a financial basis.

The official blurb at the time we were looking for a new car, both in the motoring press and general political opinion was that diesels were far more powerful and economical than their petrol counter-parts. Amazingly no negative comments about emissions or being dirty.

In the past 5 or 10 years, official opinions moved to diesels being dirty and full of poisonous NO2 fumes.
The VW emissions scandal in 2015 sealed the fate of diesel car sales from then on.
Many smaller cars are no longer available in diesel format, due to the reduction in demand.

On a personal perspective, the Vectra-C still easily meets it's MOT emissions and smoke test criteria every year.
It is far more reliable and delivers 30%+ better fuel economy than the Cavalier.
And an extra 30% bhp to boot, despite being a smaller engine displacement.

So I will probably sound selfish when I say that I have no intention to part with either car any time soon.